A tally of financial gurus and bloggers were given a chance to pronounce their opinions of where the country stands in this economic strife.
The group includes:
- a popular blogger dedicated to giving readers the deals not otherwise known by the general public
- a Washington D.C. based corporate mogul who runs a billion dollar HP company and is seen as a visionary in the world of finance and economic reform
- a Chicago-based real estate expert who aids his consumers daily in the plight of real estate purchasing, financing and recovery
- a Wall Street broker and top blogger
- a San Francisco-based financial guru with a leading blog
- leading hedge fund managers
The prevailing thoughts were that of tension, apprehension and uncertainty by all who were a part of this informal questioning.
Along the same lines, the impressions of where the country stands were similar, with a new moniker being placed on our economic status: “The Great Depression 2”.
Whether this characterization is true still remains to be seen and might only come to fruition in hindsight.
However, one thing is clear: Relief is long from being in sight and life as the general consumer knows he or she will not see full recovery for as much as 10 years.
Experts State Their Views On Current Economy
The first of the five questions asked of our financial experts was that of a more simplistic one.
With little frill or extravagance those being questioned were given the short task of offering their opinions on the current economic status of the country. Simply stated,
How would you describe the current status of the economic climate within our country?
While the responses by all the respondents were of similar nature, with similar tone and rhetoric, there were certain responses that defined a tenure in our society, thus producing a billboard effect for the voice of our country’s consumer.
David Hochberg, President of Townstone Financial a Chicago-based Mortgage company, is seen throughout the home loan industry as an expert in loan services as well as a viable source of accurate information as it pertains to the common consumer of home loans, was plain in his response to the question.
We’re in a “State of Peril”
Hochberg states that Illinois, in particular, is in a state of peril not seen for decades.
With the home loan industry under heavy constraints and more and more debtors facing the bankruptcy cycle, Hochberg feels it will be many years before the lending institution recovers.
Even then, Hochberg continues, “the composition of the typical home loan applicant will be much different as will their needs.”
Taking on more of a bird’s eye view of the nation’s economic status while simultaneously drilling deep into the overall perception of where our economy sits is David Morris who is the Director of Mergers & Acquisitions for EDS Corporation (a Hewlett-Packard company).
Mr. Morris is a Georgetown alumnus who sits high a perch one of the country’s largest companies, and is relied upon to help orchestrate the company’s economic prowess amongst its competitors.
Injections of Liquidity Are Not Enough
This in turn serves to provide a certain benchmark for the typical consumer to work from.
David had this to say about where the US economy sits:
“No bubble of any kind in our history has been solved on the first try or in an abridged manner. Pick up any piece of historical analysis by Robert Shiller for a glimpse of what to expect.
Injecting liquidity into the system only holds the doors open long enough for those in charge to execute their contingency exit strategies. A washout of failed participants is the only proven way to eradicate prior excess and cleanse the system.
We are simply in a synthetic environment that buys our government time to deal with the real problems at hand. Any upside in the stock markets between now and the end of the year should be looked at as a gift to exit long positions and reposition for the markets heading south into 2010."
In a similar breath of displeasure and lack of short-term promise is the reply from John Thomas, a senior blogger for the site Seeking Alpha, which is widely considered to be the premier financial blog site—even earning top honors from Time Magazine.
Great Depression Number Two
Thomas who works under the title Mad Hedge Trader (Thomas also works as a Hedge Fund Manager in his ‘day job’) was very clear in his opinion:
“We are now full faced in the great depression number two. With that, there is sure to be a 5-10 year gap for recovery with real estate finding itself more towards the 10 year mark.”
Finding conjoining thoughts with both Morris and Thomas is famed economic blogger Mike ‘Mish’ Shedlock.
Shedlock who has a vast knowledge of the trends and incubus of the nation’s economy offered a profound opinion on the US economy and bankruptcy.
Shedlock offers that we, as a nation, are now amidst a ‘secular attitude change” which is from a dismal “credit event similar to the great depression.”
Considering the overwhelming popularity of Mish’s blog, the nation seems to be taking notice of his perceptions, consequently Shedlock’s response to the question of where our economy stands in worth heavy consideration. As does those of the rest of the respondents.
Cliché No More: Economy is Truly Affecting Us All
Overall, anyone who resides within the US has felt the strains of economic uncertainty, financial unfamiliarity and personal debt shock.
For what comes next in this evolution remains to be seen.
No amount of forecasting, prophesy or analysis will completely tell the story of our nation’s newest economic collapse.
However, one particular aspect to this will remain constant, as it was in the 1930’s. The resolve and ingenuity of the American consumer to fare well in troubled times will far outlast a lack of funding or rickety financial flooring.
The Filing Bankruptcy Option
Filing bankruptcy is a decision not to be lead into lightly.
Although it was created to be a legal avenue to support the financial rebound for those who travel down its path, it is not meant to be—nor should it be—seen as a ‘quick fix’.
The tasks for such financial declaration are laborious and heavy handed, with numerous ramifications resulting from the process.
The ideological change which abounds from a successful navigation of bankruptcy, if followed as the process is intended to be, is such a reformation that most who chose bankruptcy resurface from it far better suited for financial freedom than those who succumb to the far less successful products of financial distress:
- foreclosure
- repossession
- lack of housing
- unemployment
- divorce
- illness, injuries or death
Consequently, filing bankruptcy can often be a prescription for financial remedy far better suited for the current economic status we Americans are knee-deep in.
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