Six month ago, the idea of the oil giant BP going bankrupt was an unthinkable proposition. Now, although still difficult to imagine, isn’t so far-fetched.

Despite the improbability of a BP bankruptcy, there is a common question that people what been asking themselves: What does the worst case scenario for BP look like?

An article from the New York Times indulges into this hypothetical situation.

Already, the price of BP’s stock has plummeted over one third of its pre-spill price.
There is some speculation by legal minds that BP might consider filing bankruptcy and separate the cost of cleanup and potentially up to billions of dollars in legal claims into a separate corporate entity.

But according to Tony Hayward, BP’s ousted chief executive, BP will be capable of weathering the storm. Just last year BP turned a profit of an astounding $17 billion.

It is this extreme amount of cash flow that will allow BP to fully compensate those wrongfully injured by the company and pay for the cleanup costs, claims Howard.

Despite the incredible profits the company has made in the past, a $40 billion tab on the clean up and damage coverage isn’t of the realm of possibility in the area. If BP was forced to shell out this much money, then another Texaco situation might not be out of the question.

In 1987, the oil giant Texaco filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy because it was unable to pay a $1 billion jury award to rival Pennzoil. What’s amazing is that the $1 billion award was actually less than 10 percent of the original judgment of $10.53 billion.

That was an interesting case where Texaco was found liable for jumping the planned merger between Pennzoil and Getty Oil, a move which allowed the jury to award triple damages for Pennzoil.

There is a cap on BP’s liability for so-called ‘economic devastation’, at only $75 million. The only problem with that cap is it becomes irrelevant if it is found that BP has violated safety regulations—and the latest presumption is that BP has in fact violated safety regulations.

It is possible for BP to fight and win any potential large judgment against them- a move which could save the company. When the now infamous Exxon Valdez spilled, the original judgment against Exxon was $5 billion. But after several appeals and fights which made it all the way to the Supreme Court, the final judgment was cut down to a more manageable $507.5 million.

A senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, Robert Bryce, seems to sum up the main thought about BPs overall stability well when he says that, “BP is financially sound now. It is unlikely to go bust near term… instead, BP will spend the coming decades circling the drain, mired in endless litigation, its reputation irreparable damaged and its finances weakened.”

This is far from a great outcome, but it seems to be far more likely than bankruptcy.