The Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO), which develops the primary formula used to calculate credit scores, released data this week on changes to credit scores during the economic turmoil of the last several years. The report shows credit score distribution from 2005 through 2011 and indicates that, on average, our credit scores have not changed significantly since the collapse of the housing market in 2007.
If that sounds fishy to you, don’t worry: the term “average” here is meant mathematically. Individual credit scores fluctuated in various ways:
- More people in the highest group: In 2005, when the stock and housing markets were still going strong, 16.9 percent of Americans had a credit score in the highest range (800 to 850). In 2011, though, the highest-scoring group has swelled to 18.1 percent.
- More people in the lowest group: In 2005, people with credit scores between 350 and 599 stood at 23.6 percent of the population. This year, the number has risen to 24.9 percent. Early in the recession, people with the lowest scores (350 to 499) jumped, too, though that percentage has leveled out in the last two years.
- Fewer people in the middle: Those with credit scores between 600 and 799, usually considered to be in the middle of the credit scoring pack, saw their numbers decrease between 2005 (59.5 percent) and 2011 (56.5 percent).
Making Sense of the Numbers
While the findings at first may seem confusing or counterintuitive, there is a satisfying explanation behind the shift toward the extremes of the credit-scoring spectrum during a downturn.
- The strong shore up: People who already have fairly strong credit scores tend to be more financially secure than those with lower scores. When the economy sours, these people tend to pay down debt more quickly than they might have otherwise, save more money, and avoid new sources of credit. These actions not only prepare them for potential financial road bumps (such as unemployment) but also improve their credit scores.
- The weak struggle: People already overextended on credit tend to be less financially secure and may be hurt especially hard by tough economic times. Job loss, reliance on new lines of credit and unexpected expenses could cause this group even more financial distress, thus lowering their scores further.
Individuals close to either end of the spectrum may move further toward that end in tough times, thus lowering the total percentage of folks in the middle.
Individual Habits Most Important
Another important factor in determining credit scores is a person’s individual spending and saving habits. Because these tend not to change much regardless of external forces, recessionary times might not affect credit scores as much as they affect other economic indicators such as home prices and interest rates.
Tags: consumer credit, credit, credit report, credit score, recession
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