The College Board announced this week that SAT scores among U.S. high school students dropped from last year. While the decrease may not seem significant (the average reading score fell three points, writing fell two points, and math dropped by one), analysts are worried that the dip could be part of a larger trend.

Unfortunately, that trend could have significant long-term impact on the future of the U.S. economy and jobs market.

The Test Score-Employment Link

Here’s a look at why faltering SAT scores are raising some concern among those worried about the long-term recovery of the U.S. economy.

• SAT Benchmark: The College Board, which administers the SAT, has determined that a score of 1550 out of 2400 indicates that a student has a 65 percent chance of earning at least B-minus grades in college and thus of earning a degree.
• Less than half of seniors meeting the benchmark: In 2011, only 43 percent of seniors planning to attend college achieved the benchmark score. This suggests that the majority of those entering college this fall have a less than 65 percent chance of completing school (according to the College Board’s research).
• Unemployment by degree earned: The failure to complete college is troubling considered in the context of current unemployment rates. While the national average hovers around nine percent, that number varies significantly when total education is considered. In 2010, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released numbers indicating that, when the nation’s unemployment rate was at 8.2 percent, the rate for those with a doctoral degree was a mere 1.9 percent; professional degree earners had a 2.4 percent rate; those with masters degrees, 4.0 percent; those with bachelor’s degrees, 5.4 percent; associate degrees, 7.0 percent; some college, 9.2 percent; high school diploma, 10.3 percent; and no high school, 14.9 percent.
• The future of U.S. jobs: Those numbers reflect a trend in the U.S. that involves available jobs becoming more and more skilled. The Secretary of Education has gone on the record saying that most jobs available in the U.S. in the future will be skilled and that education and training are becoming more and more essential to obtaining and keeping employment.

Those who start college and don’t finish may still have to contend with student loans, which are not dischargeable in bankruptcy. Student debt can be especially difficult without the increased earning potential that typically accompanies a completed degree.

Economic Recovery and Employment

Naturally, nobody will insist that the economy has recovered until the unemployment rate has fallen closer to normal levels. Though many analysts say that recovery must start in the housing market, most citizens and politicians pay more attention to employment numbers, because these have a more observably direct impact on citizens.

Part of the worry that the College Board’s numbers spurred comes from overseas: students in China and elsewhere are improving on standardized tests as U.S. students fall behind. This has led some people to worry that, if American workers, students, and schools don’t improve, the country might have to start outsourcing jobs for the highly trained.