The Commerce Department reported today that the gross domestic product (GDP), the economy’s total output of goods and services and a major metric of economic health, declined at an annual rate of 0.5 percent in the July/September quarter.

Analysts had estimated this drop a month ago and are now predicting that this current quarter will experience a much more dramatic decrease.

In fact, some analysts believe the GDP could drop as much as 6 percent this quarter—the largest decline in 26 years.

Analysts further calculate similar declines in the first and second quarter of 2009, but expect the economy to start growing next summer, with the recession likely ending in June 2009.

By that time, the recession would go on record as being the longest recession since World War II.

This GDP drop came after a 2.8 percent increase in the spring, which was largely accredited to the millions of dollars that was dished out through economic stimulus packages.

Breaking it Down

• Economy has lost jobs every month in 2008 (totaling 1.9 million, with more than 0.5 million jobs lost in November)
• Unemployment rate at 6.7 percent—highest in 15 years
• Consumer spending dropped at an annual rate of 3.8 percent—biggest decline since 1980
• Corporate profits fell 1.2 percent—fifth consecutive quarter drop
• Residential construction fell at an annual rate of 16 percent
• Non-residential construction fell 1.7 percent

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